The UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies’ latest recall poll, released Wednesday, found that several areas in California that are considered to be on the fence or democratic, such as San Diego County, Orange County, and areas outside of LA, largely in favor of removing Gavin Newsom and a Republican to replace Governor Newsom in the September 14 election.
However, one region stood out in particular: the north coast. Since the mid-1990s, only Arnold Schwarzenegger managed to win the region over to the Republicans, with some counties having to go back to the Pete Wilson era of governor to find a Republican who could win them over last. But in the poll, when they asked north coast residents if they were most likely to vote for a recall, a majority voted yes, 50% -47%. Less than a year ago, about 2 out of 3 voters in North Coast counties like Humboldt and Mendocino voted for Biden. In 2018, it was exactly the same for those counties in terms of voters for Newsom. But now, less than three years later, the region could now hold the key to ousting the same person who voted them out of office.
Some of the reasons for the turnaround are well known. Like many Californians, many voters in the region are still angry about Governor Gavin Newsom’s statewide bans on businesses in the region during the pandemic. Farmers in the area are also upset about the drought in the area as the reservoirs are feeling the pinch of the state releasing the water instead of using it for urban or agricultural purposes. Finally, forest fires have devastated many parts of the region, with the largest forest fire ever in the state’s history, the complex’s fire in August 2020, particularly affecting Newsom’s reputation in the region.
But the reasons for the widening gap lie deeper as many issues, such as fire and drought, are clustered and focused on some of the region’s most famous products. For example, marijuana growers who previously voted for Newsom and Democrats because of their more favorable marijuana attitudes are now more likely to remove the governor.
“If you’d asked me ten years ago if I would vote Republicans, I would have laughed in your face,” said Johnny “Treemaine” Thompson, a cannabis farmer in Humboldt County who represents several nearby farms, in an interview with Globe on on Thursday. “Now we and other farmers think we have to call this guy back. The feeling is that he doesn’t care about the farmers. “
“We know he’s not to blame for COVID or the forest fires and other natural things like these. But when a government he leads dumps water into the sea instead of having farms that grow food or economically valuable crops like cannabis, or even people in cities and towns, it becomes a problem. “
“We’re also very concerned about forest fires out here, but we keep seeing money go in all directions but our way and to bring more people here to help fight those forest fires. If you’re asking why so many people want him out of here, that should give you a good clue as to why. “
A majority of likely voters are now in favor of Newsom’s removal
Many pollsters in the area agree.
“Agriculture is just one sector here,” Jenna Herlihy, a Redding-based pollster, told the Globe. “Tremendously important, but only one. Many people who were asked about the recall came from cities here and actually said they would not vote at all. “
“And that’s why you see this change on the north coast. It’s not that the area is getting redder, it’s just that a lot of Democrats won’t vote. The Republicans here, all very conscious of the election, all seem to want to vote. A questionnaire was recently sent out to North Coast Country voters and over 95% of registered Republicans said they wanted to vote. For the Democrats, many of whom believe Newsom has finished this election, we’re talking about halfway through. All in all, you get a slim majority for calling him back. “
“That’s not to say that his COVID guidelines didn’t get a lot of people because they did. Small business owners in particular, especially in tourist areas, have been hit very hard financially and saw the governor restrict their business without either offering any facilities or allowing tourists to travel there for at least some income. But no, they have been hurt, and like others, they are very motivated to remember him. “
“If we get a bad fire here before the elections and the governor doesn’t quickly mobilize people up here, then he’ll surely lose it here. There are a lot of people with him right now. “
More polls are expected in the coming weeks to see how the likely voting situation in the North Coast region will change.
